The Emerging Tech Laboratory
The future is impossible to predict, but we can try to estimate scenarios based on assumptions that align with known science, feasible technologies and all based on sensible economics within reasonable limits of societal values, and government regulation.
Some stimulating scenarios might one day lead to:
Manufactured Life = Robotics + General AI + Synthetic Biology
Hybrid Computing = Classical + Quantum + Variable analogue
Quantum Web = Quantum + Security + IOT
Engineered Intelligent Viruses = Nanotech + Biotech + Classified (oops)
Intelligent Magnetic Fields = HTS Components + Nanotech + General Artificial Intelligence
Dynamic Geoengineering = Nanotech + General Artificial Intelligence + Advanced Materials
IQ 200 min = General Artificial Intelligence + AR/ VR + Neural interface
Human Cyborgs = General Artificial Intelligence + Distributed Quantum Computing + Synthetic Biology
DAO Finance Banks = Distributed Ledger Technologies + Artificial Intelligence + IOT
Photo Voltaic Walls = Advanced materials for PV + IOT + Artificial Intelligence
Manufactured Life = Robotics + General AI + Synthetic Biology
Here is a far from exhaustive selection of emerging tech definitions and emerging tech along with a brief status of them as of September 2022.
Artificial General Intelligence
Definition - AGI is the concept of a machine capable of understanding and performing in the world at the level of human intelligence, i.e., its capacity to undertake tasks requiring general intelligence would match that of the average human. General consensus among the research community follows that successful AGI would possess the following characteristics: knowledge representation, use of reasoning, making judgements during uncertainty, ability to plan and earn, and to communicate in natural language. These would require inputs as the ability to sense and outputs as the ability to act. A machine constituting a functioning AGI requires an integrated system excelling at all the aforementioned areas.
Business Potential - AGI systems would theoretically be capable of learning how to identify regular behavior patterns across fields, and therefore be able to spot anomalies within these patterns. This function is applicable across financial markets, cybersecurity, elections, etc. In polls conducted among AI researchers to estimate the arrival of AGI, the mean prediction was 2081, with another showing the mean prediction for AGI’s arrival was 2050. The steps required to achieve AGI make it difficult to provide accurate financial estimations for AGI’s impact.
TRL - There are currently no AI systems which pass general intelligence tests and research communities are yet to set out an agreed upon definition of intelligence, meaning there are also multiple varying general intelligence tests. There are varying ideas on whether consciousness and emotion are necessary factors for AGI, inclusion of these would require unpredictable breakthroughs in computing as well as a deeper understanding of human cognition. Therefore, TRL is estimated to be at level 1/ 2.
Ethical- Common ethical arguments regarding AGI surround the potential existential threat to human life. Questions remain on how one would build safeguards and architectures within the program to ensure that a self-recursive program would act in a friendly/ unselfish and not destructive manner.
Geopolitical - 6 of the world's top 10 Artificial Intelligence institutes are based in the USA, with 2 in the UK and 2 more in Europe.
AGI is generally believed to be end-game in geopolitics, though this may be exaggeration because while human brain, but not mind, emulation by one country would be a remarkable achievement it may initially have less impact. However, if over time the emulation giving rise to AGI were to be significantly amplified and harnessed against adversaries this would surely be a structural competitive advantage.
Biometrics
Definition - Biometrics are measurements of physiological characteristics, such as fingerprint mapping, facial recognition, retinal scans, which can be used to identify individuals. They can be mostly divided into three groups. Biological biometrics look at traits on a genetic & molecular level, such as DNA and blood.
Morphological biometrics involve body structure such as face shape and fingerprint.
Behavioural biometrics focus on unique behavioural patterns such as how one walks, speaks, typing patterns.
Business Potential – The biometric market is predicted to reach a valuation of $127.32 billion by 2030, with law enforcement and government remaining the largest sector for growing demand in defense sectors and homeland security.
TRL – Implementation of biometrics are already widespread across the globe, advancements mainly revolve around security, such as combining types of biometric data to circumvent hackers. TRL estimated at 8/9.
Ethical – Wider uptake of biometrics, for example some governments have already installed facial recognition cameras in public spaces, promotes fears that biometric security will inevitably erode personal privacy. All biometric data is stored in large databases, many of which have already been the target of hackers.
Geopolitical - Hacked biometric databases have the capacity to become powerful political tools, with biometric data now being used across industries internationally.
Nanotechnologies
Definition - Nanotechnology is the field of science, technology, engineering, devoted to producing structures at the nanoscale- i.e., 1 - 100 nanometres (to give some sense of scale to this, there are 25,400,000 nanometres in an inch). Nanotech is used especially for building microscopic devices such as robots, and materials with innovative structural properties, undertaken by manipulating atoms individually to create structures (although these must still adhere to the laws of physics/nature).
Business Potential – Nanotech has huge applications across healthcare, environmental applications such as wastewater treatment, renewable energies, materials for construction. The goals for many of these applications are to reduce carbon emissions, reducing the need for high carbon-emitting industries such as cement and glass production. The global market for nanotech is predicted to grow from $5.2 billion in 2021 to $23.6 billion by 2026.
TRL – Many materials/ devices have already been produced using nanotech, though there is much R&D to be done to make nanotech applicable across fields, TRL estimated at 6-9.
Ethical – There are concerns surrounding safety of nanotech; elements at the nanoscale behave differently than they do in mass form, thus toxic elements could be released into the environment & humans if not carefully tested. As of 2022 there are no technical capabilities to monitor the environment for impact and presence of nanomaterials- if toxic elements were released it would take a while for us to realize. As with many emerging technologies, legislation is not up to date to ensure safety regarding new developments.
Geopolitical – Currently the US is the world leader of nanotech, with its National Nanotechnology Initiative receiving $1.4 billion in federal budget, though China, South Korea, Japan, UK are not far behind, and nanotech is becoming more recognized as significant/ necessary for demonstrations of national power.
AR/VR/ Holography
Definition - Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality are computer generated simulations that integrate the real world (AR) or are self-contained (VR). Augmented reality adds digital elements to the real-life environment by using the camera on a smartphone, common examples include snapchat/ Instagram lenses. Virtual reality is a completely immersive experience accessed using devices such as Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and transports the user into a simulated environment.
Business Potential – AR & VR began initially in the gaming world but have begun gaining traction in the following areas; (1) immersive employee safety training; employees can practice hazardous real life scenarios but within the safety of VR (2) sales & marketing presentations; clients are immersed in an environment where they can freely interact with the product and see how it performs in real-life scenarios that wouldn't be possible if viewing on a shop floor (3) industrial design; models can be built within VR where traditionally a physical model would have been required.
VR’s ability to immerse someone in fictional scenarios has resulted in its uptake in therapeutic uses including pain management and treatment of phobias and anxiety, as well as for training purposes in the military, surgery, and disaster response.
TRL – Both VR and AR have been deployed across varying contexts for years, TRL at 9. However, there are health issues (motion sickness, transient eye strain) stemming from these technologies yet to be resolved before they can be classed as completely healthy for long term use.
Ethical – VR & AR have multiple health risks which users of these technologies should be made aware of; (1) information overload, (2) motion sickness, (3) intensification of experience (due to being in a fully immersive VR environment, which may hinder the participants coping abilities and thus trigger an adverse response), (4) emotional, cognitive, behavioural disturbances after re-entry into the real world after time spent in a VR environment.
The most talked about ethical question regarding VR centres on the potential behavioural and emotional changes triggered by the virtual embodiment experience; if a user were to spend time in games involving killing other humans or animals, would this make them more likely to continue this act in the real world? If this user were to spend inordinate amounts of time pursuing this activity in the virtual world, is there a point where they might find it hard to distinguish between the real and virtual world? If a user suffered long-term emotional distress from time spent in a virtual multiplayer game, who would take responsibility for harm caused? Violence and pornography are already widely accessed on the internet, there’s no reason to assume these would not be also accessed in a virtual setting, where the added realness may have greater negative social consequences.
Geopolitical – Shared virtual environments can be accessed by anyone possessing the correct technology, this can allow one to influence others in different physical locations but could also allow safety training and healthcare to be delivered across nations.
Genetic Engineering
Definition - Genetic engineering refers to the process of directly modifying the genetic structure of an organism by removing or introducing DNA using recombinant DNA technology. Recombinant DNA (rDNA) works by using enzymes to essentially cut and paste together desired DNA sequences, these new DNA sequences are then placed into vehicles (called vectors) which transport the DNA into a host cell where it can be expressed or multiplied. Genetic engineering has already been used to produce human insulin for diabetes patients, the hepatitis B vaccine, human growth hormones, and genetically modified organisms such as disease-resistant crops.
Business Potential – The global genetic engineering market is predicted to reach 11.7 billion USD by 2026 from 5.1 billion USD in 2021. Genetic engineering is already widely used in crop production and medicines and will become of increased importance in modifying animals and lab-made meat (see Beyond Meat for examples of current use in industry) as demand for alternate forms of food production (due to global population expansion and climate change) increases. Genome editing as a diagnostic tool has recently seen significant improvements and is especially useful in oncology.
TRL – Estimated at 8; genetically engineered foods, medicines, vaccines are accessed across the world on a daily basis.
Ethical – Most ethical discussions centre around editing the human genome. Since genetic engineering is already in use in medicine & food, most ethical concerns regarding these have been overcome by its advantages.
Currently research of genome editing in humans centres around genetically editing embryos where both parents are homozygous for an inheritable disease. There is concern that if this were made widely available, the technology could be used for enhancement & non-therapeutic purposes. One widely discussed fear is that as with all new technologies, only the wealthiest can afford it and so one could imagine a wealthy elite engineering their embryos with desired characteristics, creating a ‘super race’. To be able to achieve this, scientists would have to experiment on human embryos, any embryos that lived would also have been unable to provide informed consent, factors which are considered violations on the principles of human ethics.
Given the recentness of genetic engineering, safety is a primary concern. There is the possibility of mosaicism (whereby some but not all cells carry the edited DNA) and off-target edits (where the edit is made in the wrong/ unintended place). The long-term results of which are still unknown.
Geopolitical – The field is currently led by political world leaders: China, Russia and the USA.
In 2012 the Beijing Genomics Institute announced a project intended to discover the genes responsible for human intelligence, with their goal being to increase each generation's IQ by 5 to 15 points. China has largely ignored international criticism on its use of genetic engineering, yet after huge international pressure confirmed a scientist had produced the first ‘designer baby’. The scientist was put on house arrest and the project closed, yet soon after Chinese scientists announced they had successfully implanted human genes into 5 monkey brains (here), raising important questions regarding human evolution and boundaries of human consciousness.
In 2017 President Putin gave an ominous speech announcing his fears of genetically modified ‘superhuman’ soldiers. Although he claimed to be opposed to this development, recent advances into Ukraine have resurfaced fears of his intentions. One highly relevant Chinese-made development is the ability to create HIV-resistant embryos; since 2018 HIV infections have been at an alarmingly high growth rate in Eastern Europe, with Russia leading in infection rate.
The US Pentagon's DARPA is working on a project called ‘insect allies’; using insects to inject genetically modified viruses into crops to make them resistant to diseases and climate change, yet as with all GMO’s this has unknown consequences, and could theoretically be used to engineer diseases as a biological weapon.
Artificial photosynthesis
Definition - Artificial photosynthesis bio mimics the natural process of photosynthesis, the term artificial photosynthesis refers to any method for capturing and storing energy from the sun in the chemical bonds of (solar) fuel. Energy from sunlight is a huge untapped resource; plants perform massive energy conversions, turning 1,000 billion metric tons of CO2 into organic matter using only 3% of sunlight that reaches the earth annually. To artificially recreate photosynthesis an energy conversion system must be able to harvest sunlight and split water molecules. If artificial photosynthesis were achieved, we would be able to reduce Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere while simultaneously producing an emission-free energy source, if this were achieved it is likely it would be possible to improve & make more efficient the process of photosynthesis.
Business Potential – Being a zero-emission energy resource provides unlimited business potential. As this technology is not yet feasible, global market estimates are based on government fundings and grants for research & development, estimated to grow to USD 185 million by 2030.
TRL – Artificial photosynthesis is in the early research & development phase, as there are many challenges yet to overcome for achieving it, including improving stability & performance of photoanode material for light harvesting & catalytic conversion, finding a suitable metal catalyst for each desired reaction. TRL therefore estimated at 1 - 2.
Ethical – Some scientists argue there is an ethical imperative to develop A.P since it is capable of removing large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere, aligning with a longer-term vision for the survival of humanity.
Geopolitical – if developed viably and at scale, this would be transformational but is likely to happen only over a period of decades enabling a transition from fossil fuels to occur with only nominal perturbations.
Quantum Computing
Definition - Quantum computing is a form of computation which harnesses collective properties of quantum states (e.g., superposition, interference, entanglement) to perform calculations, performed by devices known as quantum computers. Quantum computers aim to solve problems too complex for classical computers and focus on developing technology based on principles of quantum theory - which explains behaviour of energy and material on atomic and subatomic levels. Quantum algorithms function by creating multidimensional spaces where the patterns linking individual data points emerge.
Business Potential – Quantum computers have the potential to solve complex problems such as modelling proteins, modelling routes for hundreds of shipping containers across transatlantic trade routes, as well as time-sensitive issues like global warming, where quantum simulations can tackle materials-science problems such as finding compounds for more efficient batteries.
It is estimated that few firms will build or possess their own quantum computers, but a cloud-computing-style model may be more prominent where companies will rent access to quantum machines.
TRL – currently considered to be at TRL 5; the primary obstacle to be overcome is the error correction.
Ethical – As with many new technologies, the question remains of how we can avoid a small elite group of people or countries controlling quantum technologies. With quantum computing allowing easier access to advancements such as human DNA manipulation, regulation will have to accelerate simultaneously, yet the question of where to draw the ethical line on advancements such as creation of new technologies for war, intrusive AI presence in human life, may become more challenging.
Geopolitical – Many countries are engaging in their own national quantum computing programs, putting national efforts at the expense of the global perspective, and large investments are being allocated that duplicate national research programs. The ultimate prize is computing advantage which would only happen were a nation to take a material lead in the number of operational entangled qubits.
Human Brain-computer interface
Definition - BCI’s are computer-based systems that use & analyse signals produced by the central nervous system, translating them into commands that can be relayed to an output device for the desired action. BCI’s can be thought of as a neuro-prosthetic (prosthetic limb for the brain), where the aim is to assist, augment, repair sensory-motor and human cognitive functions that might have been damaged by injury or illness. BCI’s are essentially a direct communication pathway between an external device and the brain’s electrical activity.
Business Potential – The 2020 global BCI market size is valued at $1,488.00 million, and by 2030 is projected to reach $5,463.00 million. BCI’s will have a huge impact across sectors; dominance of the autonomous car industry is likely to hinge on successful development of a BCI merging vehicle and driver.
TRL – The first neuro-prosthetic devices were implanted in humans in the mid-1990s and cochlear implants alone are presently in over 220,000 patients worldwide. Rudimentary BCI systems have already been implemented in a few patients, with Musk’s Neuralink being the latest development (2021) whereby implanting a device in a monkey’s allowed it to play videogames. Future advances in BCI depend on; improvements in signal-acquisition hardware, real-world use-cases proving long-term effectiveness, and improved reliability of BCI performance so that it reaches a similar level of dependability of natural muscle-based function. TRL estimated at 6-7.
Ethical – Ethical concerns centre around human autonomy, as BCI technology directly modulates the brain. DBS (direct brain stimulation), the precursor to BCI, was developed in the late 80’s for those with advanced Parkinson's disease. Involving passing electrical activity through regions of the brain causing tremors, thus suppressing local neural activity, the method was highly effective yet caused side effects such as impulse-control issues and personality issues - side effects possible to occur in BCI.
Geopolitical – Advancements in AI & BCI will render the currently spatial boundaries geopolitics irrelevant but will transform to exist in the neuro-technological complex. Despite calls from industry leaders, the US has been despondent to issue strong regulation, if US leaders were to step back from the AI race this leaves the path clear for China to become world leader in the field.
Advanced Energy Storage Devices
Definition - Advanced energy storage is a new technology sector critical for developing 21st century electricity grids addressing the current unsustainable consumption of non-renewable energy sources. The field of advanced energy storage has become a popular strategy, by delivering on-demand energy. Currently, energy storage systems are available for various large-scale applications and are classified into 4 types: mechanical, chemical, electrical, electro-chemical.
Business Potential – Recently there has been a rapid deployment of wind, solar and battery storage, largely driven by the climate emergency, government incentives, falling prices, and increasing prices for non-renewable energy sources. Many nations are already integrating renewable energy sources into their energy generation policies to fulfil rising power demands.
TRL – Challenges include high cost of implementation (large investments are needed for batteries), outdated regulatory policy and market design, lack of standardization in storage systems. Lithium-ion batteries are currently one of the most dominant energy storage devices, yet extraction of its raw materials (lithium and iron) still require huge carbon and water usages.
Ethical – Combating climate change is an ethical issue, those affected the most have contributed the least to carbon usage. Developing devices such as lithium-ion batteries require the constriction of mines (for extraction of raw materials) where children are still being employed in unsafe conditions.
Geopolitical – One third of the world’s lithium comes from salt flats in Argentina & Chile, yet can also be made by exposing material to very high temperatures- a high energy procedure done in China & Australia. Cobalt is another important compound, yet 70% of which is found in the Congo. The EU currently requires battery companies to collect and recycle 45% of their batteries and is considering increasing this to 70% by 2030, however with current shortages in recycled material, this could require companies to import material from China and South Korea to satisfy EU requirements.
Regenerative medicine incl. stem cells
Definition - Regenerative medicine involves engineering human or animal cells, tissues, organs so that they might be rejuvenated to normal function. This method stimulates the body’s own repair mechanism and is applicable to disease-damaged cells that were previously irreparable or would have required organ donation. This is carried out by first growing stem cells in a laboratory (stem cells are those which have not yet become specified and so can develop into any cell in the body) and can be manipulated to develop into a type of cell e.g., heart muscle cells, which can then be injected into the diseased heart. Alternatively, stem cells may be extracted from the patient, grown into a tissue or organ in the laboratory, and then transplanted back into the patient, thereby circumventing the current issues in organ donation of organ shortages and transplant rejection. Potential use cases include those with heart disease, spinal cord injuries, strokes, burns injuries, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease.
Business Potential – Stem cell research can also promote understanding of diseases; by watching how stem cells specialize into cells we can understand how diseases & various natural conditions emerge. Stem cell tissues can be used to test the efficacy and safety of new drugs, this can save drug testing in humans and animals.
TRL – The first work using stem cells began with the first attempts at bone marrow transplantation in the 1950’s, this therapy is now widely available for treatment of leukaemia and various blood disorders. Other current uses of stem cell therapy are used in skin grafts for severe burns patients and corneal grafts for loss of eyesight due to infection or burns. More complex conditions however have not yet been achieved, some predict another 20 years is needed before regenerative medicine is widely accessible across treatment areas. TRL estimated at 6/7.
Ethical – Ethical issues of regenerative medicine vary slightly according to where the stem cells may be extracted from. Stem cells extracted from human embryos have issues involving informed consent (an unborn embryo cannot give consent), destruction of embryos, creation of embryos specifically for research, for the women acting as oocyte donors there may be medical risks of oocyte retrieval, the question of paying donors, protecting the reproductive interests of donor women.
During stem cell clinical trials there remain risks of experimentation intervention, risks of long-term impact on patients, and informed consent on patients such as those with Alzheimers who might not be capable of understanding the full extent of the procedure. Further ethical implications may be found here.
Geopolitical – Countries which possess the technology to carry out regenerative medicine are at a significant advantage to those without, those with higher wealth will find it easier to pursue greater human longevity.
Ocean Renewable Energy Systems
Definition - Ocean waves, tidal currents, changes in salinity, thermal gradients can all be used to generate a sustainable source of electricity. Oceans cover over 70% of the earth’s surface, making them the largest solar collector; wave energy is the most powerful but least deployed energy resource. In comparison to other renewable energy sources (e.g., wind, solar), waves have the highest density of renewable energy and are also the most predictable renewable energy source.
Business Potential – It is estimated that if ocean energy was fully harnessed, it could meet the world's annual electricity needs. The IEA predicts that ocean power generation needs to grow by 33% annually to achieve the 2050 net-zero carbon goal, yet additional policy support for energy research, development and demonstration is required. Ocean renewable energy projects require large sums of investment and are currently only economically viable with government subsidies.
TRL – Many countries are already developing ocean energy systems however progress is needed in design and validation of ocean energy devices. Some major components like cold water pipe and heat exchangers are under early development with TRL estimated at 3-5, yet the renewable ocean energy system as a whole is estimated at TRL 7-8.
Ethical – Energy infrastructures have the potential to harm marine life, and since they rely on coastal locations, may not be able to support entire populations or nations without access to the sea. Like many renewable energy resources, ocean energy systems require large sums of investment potentially inaccessible to developing nations.
Geopolitical – This technology requires access to an ocean or large body of water. There are already disputes within the South China Sea for building permissions.
High Temperature Superconducting components
Fusion Power/ Power Transmission/ Energy Storage/ Magnetic Levitation/ Imaging/ Propulsion Systems
Definition - A superconductor is a substance capable of allowing electricity to pass through it without resistance at very low temperatures. High temperature superconductors are materials that behave as superconductors at any temperature above 77K (−196.2 °C; −321.1 °F) - the boiling point of nitrogen. They can be produced in thin-film or bulk form, possible applications include construction of computer parts, various medical devices, power transmission lines, energy storage devices, applications in particle accelerators.
Advantages of using high temperature superconductors include high operating speed, low power dissipation, extreme sensitivity, and are economical to operate since materials can be cooled with liquid nitrogen (inexpensive) rather than liquid helium (expensive).
Business Potential – HTS can address commercial solutions to multiple industries; energy, defense, communications, medication, industrial applications. HTS has the potential to accelerate the introduction of smart grid hardware applications thereby improving sustainability by reducing emissions, improving energy efficiency.
TRL – TRL is estimated at 5-6 for HTS in DC transmission systems (Direct Current is used in any electronic device with batteries for its power source), and estimated at 7-8 for HTS in AC transmission systems (generally used to power homes and businesses). Limitations yet to be addressed include the brittleness of the ceramics, instability of the materials in some chemical environments, reduced performance in a magnetic field.
Ethical – HTS have a low environmental impact in comparison to currently used materials, HTS can reach higher levels of current density therefore enabling higher capacity power transmission. A superconductor system doesn’t require separation of cables and can be installed underground, further reducing its footprint.
Geopolitical – in the military sphere, ultra-powerful magnets support hypersonic projectiles and might even to able to circumvent incumbent defence and attack opponents. In power generation, viable fusion might accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.
Distributed Ledger Tech
Digital and Crypto Currencies/ DeFi
Definition - Distributed Ledger Tech was first introduced via the invention of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin using Blockchain technology. DLT is a decentralized peer-to-peer digital system, used for recording transactions between parties in multiple places simultaneously. Cryptography and consensus mechanisms mean participants share an immutable copy of the same ledger, and this architecture forfeits the need for a centralized authority.
Blockchain is a subset of DLT and is a permissionless public distributed ledger, where all participants are anonymous, and all share a copy of the ledger. There also exist private blockchain systems, most commonly employed for internal use within a private organization. Within private systems all participants are identifiable to one another and only those with permission can access the ledger.
Business Potential – DLT has the potential to revolutionize the financial industry, has implementation across contexts requiring immutable and safe data storage such as healthcare, land registry, supply chain management where products may be tracked across the supply chain. Smart contracts and NFT’s are two technologies constructed on DLT; smart contracts are automatically executed contracts which have applications across real estate transactions, payment processing, supply chain management. NFT’s are digital assets stored on the blockchain and are ideal for storing items of value which require authentication e.g., artwork, collectibles.
TRL – DLT’s are employed successfully across a multitude of contexts, TRL at 9. Major areas of improvement centre on security and developing contexts for better application of this technology.
Ethical – Overarching ethical issues centre in the issue of trust, whether DLT can live up to its promises of privacy and security. As with any emerging technology, there is not yet an agreed-upon consensus on an ethical framework.
DLT technologies consume extremely vast quantities of energy; Bitcoin mining consumes 117 terawatt-hours of electricity per year, equal to approximately 0.5% of all electricity consumption globally and a series of transactions emanating from a single NFT consumes 340 kilowatt-hours of energy. Energy demand from DLT’s has seen a 10x increase in the past 5 years, a seemingly unnecessary use of energy and contribution to climate change.
The immutability and anonymity of DLT makes it both useful and harmful to elicit transactions; it is extremely difficult to identify persons using bitcoin to make purchases and has been used in dark web services to purchase illicit drugs, weapons, and trafficking services. Yet in contexts such as corruption in land registry, recording transactions on DLTs prevents (certain forms of) corruption occurring.
The consensus mechanism integral to DLT in theory makes bitcoin a currency with decentralized authority, yet if one individual/ group of individuals owns 50%+ of the currency, they may override other decision makers, as has been seen with Ethereum.
Geopolitical – A handful of countries have expressed desires to create their own digital currencies. One of these being China; a digital RMB could help promote internationalization of a Chinese currency and curb the dominance of the US dollar in international trade and would also limit many nations’ exposure to US sanctions which rely on the dollar's dominant financial position.
Cancer Vaccines
Definition – There are 3 types of cancer vaccines
Preventative cancer vaccines are for cancers which are caused by viruses. E.g., Liver cancer can be caused by Hepatitis B, most cervical cancers are caused by HPV (human papillomavirus). Vaccines which prevent these diseases protect the formation of HBV and HPV cancers.
Therapeutic cancer vaccines. A better understanding of tumour-associated antigens has allowed vaccines to be produced which target specific cancer cells (formally difficult to distinguish from normal cells). The goal of this type is to induce tumour regression and induce a lasting anti-tumour memory.
Personalized Neoantigen Vaccines are designed to target mutated proteins (i.e., neoantigens) which are unique to each individual's tumour.
Business Potential – There are 2 preventative cancer vaccines in use (protecting from HPV and HBV viruses) and 2 therapeutic cancer vaccines in use, which treat prostate and bladder cancer.
Cancer accounts for around 1 in 6 deaths worldwide, as the number of aging populations rise, cancer rates similarly are rising.
TRL – Many cancers are caused by mutations, which are the body’s own cells gone rogue, therefore it is difficult to target these cells with a vaccine since cancerous cells are not much different to healthy non-cancerous cells. Previous attempts at creating cancer vaccines have resulted in negative and autoimmune reactions without much success on targeting cancer cells.
The field started in 2015, and as of 2021 there were several Personalized Neoantigen Vaccines currently in clinical trials. Developments in the field have been boosted by Covid-19, due to cancer vaccines being reliant on mRNA delivery, a process commercialized by mRNA-based covid vaccines, as well as a broader social acceptance of vaccines. No one seems to be giving predictions on when it’ll be widely available through… and also its more complicated than just getting one jab and then no cancer
TRL estimated at 3/ 4.
Ethical – One of the main social and ethical issues surrounding the preventative HPV vaccine is the low vaccination rates particularly among those with low income, reasons cited include no recommendation by physician, financial barriers in places where healthcare must be paid for or those without insurance, lack of understanding of the disease, parents’ perception that offspring are not/ won’t be sexually active.
Therapeutic cancer vaccines and personalized neoantigen vaccines require expensive processes and require access to financial capital.
Geopolitical – Investments into Chinese healthcare reached $38 billion in 2021, a third increase from 2020. Yet the industry is vulnerable; a media report announcing the industry could be targeted by US sanctions resulted in a wide-scale selloff and companies which do not allow American regulators to inspect their auditing for 3 years can be removed from New York stock exchanges. Furthermore, Beijing recently added therapeutic technologies and gene diagnostics to its list of sectors where foreign investment is restricted or banned.
Existing preventative vaccines are available for 85% of those in high-income countries yet less than 25% of the population in low-income countries are able to access the vaccines.
Inorganic nanoparticle for cancer therapy
Definition – Current major cancer therapies include chemotherapy, surgery and radiation, but disadvantages of these include uneven delivery of drug concentration to the cancer site, non-specifically distributed antitumor agents, and low monitoring. These side effects can be severe and further decrease the patient’s quality of life.
Nanoparticles however may be an excellent mode for targeting cancer cells, due to the structural characteristics of nanoparticles they can potentially enter abnormal cells causing damage and determine defects in the gene. NPs can also aid in drug delivery; specifically designed nanoparticles deliver medicines straight to the tumour and don't do so until they have reached the targeted tissue. A lack of damage to healthy tissue surrounding the tumour results in greatly diminished negative side effects. As well as imaging of abnormal cells, release and monitoring of therapeutic agents against cancer.
Business Potential – According to WHO predictions, the incidence of cancer may increase from 14 to 22 million in the next two decades.
TRL – The relative stability of inorganic NPs over traditional methods of cancer treatments offers potential advantages, however the lack of understanding regarding long term toxicity and in vivo behaviour of nano formulations (i.e. behaviour of the NP in the body) means clinical trials are few. Some inorganic NPs successful in the preclinical phase were found to be unsuccessful in clinical trials. Furthermore, translation of inorganic NPs to the clinical phase requires safe, cost-effective, eco-friendly mode of synthesis, better understanding of safety mechanisms, biodistribution and pharmacokinetics of NPs.
There are no specific guidelines set by the FDA for products with nanomaterials, making regulatory approval of nanomedicines difficult. Current regulations of nanomedicines are assessed on an individual basis, causing delays in commercialization.
TRL estimated at 3 / 4.
Ethical – A central challenge in drug delivery is safety to human health; negative effects of NPs may not be noticeable immediately or have immediate impact, and additional toxicity may arise when NPs interact with biological entities external to the cancerous zone.
Geopolitical – the increasing cost of healthcare, typically measured as a percentage of local GDP is alarming. The development of these products and services is likely to benefit developed markets first, before being made available to developing markets thereby providing the former with economic advantage.